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Surely even the data at this point suggests that Chelsea are a bit of a punt in any situation.
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I generally just try minimize the odds of getting to the number of matches I expect the game to run for. Chelsea were the joint second shortest team this week (City 1.35, Spurs/Chelsea 1.42, Arsenal 1.52, Liverpool 1.59, Everton 1.75), but in hindsight there was a pretty good case for Arsenal/Everton (considering I was looking at picking them much later and I'm not sure the game will get there).
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